‘Political uncertainty’ weighs on CIG

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own - Consolidated Infrastructure Group (CIG) on Wednesday recorded 19 percent profit growth.

However, it suggested revenue would have been much higher had the “challenging” South African environment not weighed on “robust” business growth outside the country.



The diversified pan-African infrastructure-focused group, with operations across South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, said profits had increased from R331 million to R393 million in the year to the end of August. It said projects in South Africa had been delayed “due to political uncertainty and waning business confidence”, while earnings outside the country had shown growth of 68 percent.

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Overall revenue was up by 25 percent, from R3.6 billion to R4.5 billion, predominantly due to increased levels of activity within the power division. The company noted that its power order book (excluding R2.3 billion of Round 4 Renewable Energy Programme projects) had improved by 22 percent in the period under review, from R4.1 billion to R5 billion.


“The South African market is difficult to assess, with [state energy utility] Eskom spend increasing substantially while the municipalities have curtailed expenditure despite the backlog of almost R39 billion,” the statement said.


The group said it had previously won contract awards of R2.3 billion from Rounds 4 and 4.5 of the government's renewable energy feed-in tariff programme, but the projects had been delayed by months despite commitments by both government and Eskom to proceed. “We have therefore excluded these contracts from the reported order book,” CIG said.
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Headline earnings per share were up by 15.7 percent, from 220.7 cents per share to 255.3 cents per share. CIG added that since year-end it had successfully concluded the acquisition of electricity and smart meter provider Conlog from Schneider Electrical for up to R850 million.

A rights offer had been opened to shareholders to fund R750 million of the purchase price. No dividend was declared. The statement added that the board had decided that all earnings would be used to fund anticipated growth and investment opportunities, as well as to settle the additional payment for Conlog

OPEC's job has just become tougher with Trump win

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- OPEC's job of trying to prop up oil prices has just got much harder.

With Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, the 14-country oil-producing cartel may have to battle a sourer outlook for the global economy and weaker demand for crude.

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It also faces the prospect of increased US oil output - a major bugbear for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - given Trump's pledge to open all federal land and waters for fossil fuel exploration.

OPEC's internal dynamic could change, with Trump promising to tighten policies on Iran just as oil companies begin slowly to return to the Islamic Republic.


“Buckle up your seatbelts for a more turbulent and uncertain global economy that is ahead,” Pulitzer Prize-winning US oil historian Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of the IHS Markit think tank, told Reuters.
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“The outcome of the US election adds to the challenges for the oil exporters because it will likely lead to weaker economic growth in an already fragile global economy. And that means additional pressure on oil demand,” Yergin said.

Oil prices fell almost 4 percent early on Wednesday but recovered to trade up slightly at around $46 per barrel by 1055 GMT.
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OPEC will meet on November 30 in an effort to curtail output and reduce the global oil glut that has seen prices more than halve since 2014.

OPEC sources said they expected oil to remain weak in the days and weeks ahead due to worries about the global economy and uncertainty about Trump's policies for the Middle East.

“Oil is doomed,” one of the sources said.

A second source said the OPEC meeting in November might fail to have a strong impact on prices even if it strikes a deal to limit output: “I don't think prices will go up much more than the current levels.”

Trump has promised to double US economic growth but also pledged protectionist trade policies.

“This will have huge negative implications for Asia, given how much their GDP is tied to trade with the US Hence it is negative for growth and oil demand, at least due to the uncertainty that Trump creates,” said Amrita Sen, of the think tank Energy Aspects.

Trump's energy policies have been limited in detail so far.

But what he has said will be seen as supportive for the share prices of U. independent oil and gas producers as well as oil majors with large exposure to the US shale industry such as Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell.

“Trump has vowed to lead a fossil-fuel revival to underpin job growth and has also put man-made climate change denial at the forefront of his energy policy,” JBC Energy analysts said in a note.

Trump said he was in favour of removing oil-sector regulations, opening federal land to drilling, and vowed to revive a major trans-Canadian and trans-U.S. oil pipeline project while pledging to support the coal industry.

The stocks of oil majors BP and Shell were down in line with the price of crude, while France's Total underperformed peers.

Earlier this week, Total signed a deal with Iran to help it develop a huge gas field, becoming the first Western energy company to ink a major deal with Tehran since the lifting of international sanctions this year.

Trump has criticised the West's nuclear deal with Iran, adding to uncertainty and frustrating Tehran's push for foreign investment to revive its economy.

An executive from an oil major negotiating with Iran said that given Tehran wanted to repay investments slowly, maybe over five to 10 years, many oil firms would take a slow approach in finalising deals until Trump's policies became clearer.

“It is a significant amount of money that will be put at risk should sanctions be brought back,” the executive said.